“I usually take 80% of the map time, so this route should be fine.” That shortcut is tempting when you are planning a hike. It can also leave you short of time on an unfamiliar trail. Start by checking whose walking time the map gives, then compare it with your own times under similar conditions.
What is a standard hiking time based on?
A hiking map’s standard time is a reference estimate. Its assumptions depend on the publisher and the route.
For its Yama to Kogen Chizu maps, publisher Shobunsha describes a baseline of experienced hikers aged 40–60, in groups of two to five, carrying gear for hut stays in fine summer weather. A new hiker, a group carrying tents or a party walking in rain may need a different estimate.
The publisher’s map times exclude breaks. Add time for rests, meals, water stops and route checks. Read the legend for the map or app you actually use.
The same route might appear as 4 hours 20 minutes in one source and 3 hours 40 minutes in another. For example, YAMAP uses a model based on GPS tracks and terrain slope. Record which provider you used whenever you compare your own time with the published time.
Three ways a 0.8 multiplier can leave you short of time
A factor of 0.8 means your walking time is 80% of the published time. For a route listed at 4 hours, that works out to 3 hours 12 minutes before breaks. The result applies to the route and conditions you measured.
1. The conditions are different. A factor measured on a short day hike can be a poor estimate for a longer route with more climbing and a heavier overnight pack. A muddy trail can change it again.
2. You feel different on the day. Heat, sleep, fatigue and how recently you have hiked all matter. A factor of 0.8 last time gives you a reference to adjust as needed.
3. You use the same factor going up and down. Descending loose stones or scrambling down rock may take you longer than the map suggests, even if you climb faster than its estimate. Check the descent separately.
Think of the factor as your own reference under specific conditions. Compare those conditions with the new route before using the number.
How to work out your own pace factor
Divide your moving time by the published walking time for the same section. Use the same provider and make sure both times cover the same stretch of trail.
Step 1: Record your times
Record how long you actually spend walking. A GPS app or written log can help. Separate breaks from moving time so you are comparing like with like.
Step 2: Compare different kinds of terrain
Check uphill, downhill and flatter sections separately. You might find that uphill takes you 0.9 times the published time, while downhill takes 1.1 times.
Step 3: Repeat under similar conditions
Start with three to five comparable hikes if you can. Record the load, weather, distance and ascent. As you gather more examples, look at the range and use the slower end when a delay would have serious consequences.
Step 4: Build in time to spare
An extra 10–20% of moving time can illustrate a buffer on familiar terrain. A measured factor of 0.9 would then round to about 1.0–1.1. Allow more time for difficult terrain, a slower group or uncertain weather, and add breaks separately. Set a turnaround time based on daylight and the last safe exit.
The course score (kōsu teisū) proposed by Masayoshi Yamamoto and colleagues at the National Institute of Fitness and Sports in Kanoya gives another way to compare physical effort. It combines standard time, distance, cumulative ascent and cumulative descent. YAMAP places a score of 20 in its middle category. Use that as one provider’s example and check technical difficulty separately.
Keep adjusting the estimate
Your pace factor can help you plan when you know where it came from. Pack weight, weather, fatigue and terrain can all change it.
Keep recording times across hikes. Use your latest experience on comparable routes, plan for the slowest group member and leave enough time to turn back or finish in daylight.
Times and difficulty measures vary by publisher. Check the source’s definitions and current trail conditions when planning.